“No one knows what to do…” seems to be a recurring theme lately regarding the US economic outlook. The Fed has shot it’s interest rate wad, policy makers have again proven that Keynesian stimulus is a useless “extend and pretend” strategy, and everything else that’s been tried has failed, as we said it would nearly two years ago.
Now, some of the realizations we spoke of back in October of 2008 are finally coming to the forefront. For the first time in 2 years, “economists” are suddenly saying that we are NOT in a cyclical recession, but rather a masked depression. Double-dippers are now beginning to acknowledge that the only hump in an otherwise huge single dip was a dearly bought one, and we are now beginning to see the price paid for that temporary abatement.
We see a pending sovereign debt downgrade, more massive job destruction, unprecedented revenue collapse, bankrupt states cutting essential services, record numbers of unemployed on extension, record numbers of food stamp recipients, more taxes coming, more civil services on the chopping block, and a job market for teenagers consisting of burger flipping or shipping out to Afghanistan. Yes, if not for entitlements already in place, like food stamps, unemployment compensation, social security, medicare–and countless other programs not in place during the first depression–we would be seeing an America IN FAR WORSE SHAPE than the one we saw in the 1930′s.
Unfortunately that which masks the reality of our far worse economic condition today, something which we have called and continue to call beyond the scope of a depression, is the self-fulfilling debt exponentiator that future chronicles will site as the real cause for an economic disaster not yet named. This will not be referred to as a depression by future historians. We have yet to name it properly for the unprecedented disaster that it is.
So we can continue to shuffle bonds and treasuries and prestidigitate further with all sorts of useless financial slight of hand, but the age of paper shuffling for profit has come to an end, and these old tricks won’t help extend or pretend anything anymore. In the real world, the paper shuffling con isn’t putting food on tables.
When you’re in the sales department, the lifeblood of any organization, and you can’t make your numbers for this reason or that, you are let go. In the real world you don’t go to your sales manager and say, “I know we didn’t make quota again this month, but … we touched customers in new and meaningful ways”. Only the US government gets to change the way you count numbers when you don’t make them, and that is because they do not operate in the real world, where real jobs exist, that put real food on tables and real roofs over people’s heads…
So as long as we’re bogged down in reality, here’s another reality ”check” to consider. Aside from our predictions of two years ago all now coming about as we said they would, we are also one of the very few sources that has said, “We know what to do” and laid that plan out. Back then, we said that if this isn’t done everything that is happening today will come to pass, as it recently has, and here we are.
Here we are with “economists” and policy makers sctratching their heads saying they now don’t know what to do. They called us alarmists back then when we said we knew exactly what to do right here in Florida, and they scoffed at the idea that their recovery wasn’t coming. Now that it hasn’t come, and we are seeing exactly what we said would happen happen, isn’t it time to maybe try what the people who’ve been right all along said to do in the first place?
Will it still work? Yes it will, if you expect to try and somehow recover within the current monetary paradigm. But if you want to reject that paradigm, it will not work, and rejecting that paradigm is certainly on the table. One aspect of the current paradigm, the derivative swindle, must be rejected anyway. We never proposed that criminals could, or should be rewarded, and that their swindles should be bailed out. That was never part of our functioning economic paradigm.
But in the final analysis, you cannot apply the brakes after the trainwreck, you have to rebuild the train. And that’s not something the conductor generally can do all by himself.
Can America produce it’s way out of it’s non-productive descent into finance capitalism without the engine of world war behind it? That’s a good question to ask. Can America restore its honor? -its work ethic? -its values? -it’s traditions? -its character? -its greatness? Of course it can, if it can only face reality first. None of this can be accomplished under the fantasy paradigm of a world where criminals are being rewarded, where those who work the least are paid the most, where those who fail are bailed out by those who make personal sacrifices to get ahead, and subsequently never can because they are being robbed by the government sworn to protect them, so as to bail out the failures.
That is a fantasy world where a fantasy recovery fails to meet the test of reality: real food on real tables, real roofs over real heads. Real jobs, real productivity, real values – even real money, that’s worth the paper its printed on.
As the fantasy draws to an agonizing close, perhaps reality won’t be too painful a pill to swallow. It would have been easier to face 2 years ago, but as long as we are finally beginning to realize that it must be faced eventually, if we intend to live in the real world, perhaps now is the time to face it, and get serious about the only real solution anyone has ever offered.
Happy Friday!